Market Recap: Negative Performance for Stock Indexes, Bonds and Metals. Energy on the Rise

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It was a pretty negative week for several asset classes. Equity indexes and bonds were among the down markets, followed by metals and Bitcoin.

On the other hand, the energy sector closed up, with positive returns for Crude Oil and its derivatives as well as for Natural Gas, which closed positive for the first time in several weeks.

To learn more about how the markets are moving and the volatility trend, don't miss our weekly overview!

Enjoy the video!


Hey everyone and welcome back! One of the coaches at Unger Academy here and this is our usual chat that we have every weekend about market trends over the past week.

Okay, so guys, we can start by saying that it hasn’t been a particularly good week for the markets.

I’m referring primarily to stock indexes and the bonds, but in general, we have a prevalence of negative signs if we exclude the energy sector.

Let's start with the Nasdaq. We can immediately see a whopping -2.30%.
All other stock indexes are negative. Nasdaq is leading the way.
The Mini SP 500 is also down -1.61% at this point.
Eurostoxx and Dax are also suffering.

On the bond front, we have a little consolation because we have -1.80%, so a significant decline in the U.S. 30-year bond.
-1.20% for the 10-year bond, and the German 10-year bond is losing -1.26% now.

As mentioned earlier, energy is the liveliest asset class this week.
Specifically, we see Gasoline up by +6.50% and Crude Oil with almost +7.50 % over the last five days.
However, these are asset classes that have not seen particular returns recently.

In fact, if we take a look at Natural Gas, it has seen a significant bearish trend.
This is the first week that there have been no negative returns.

As for the metals sector, there’s really little to report.
Returns are very close to zero.

On the meat front, we have Lean Hogs at -3.90% right now and well, little else.

Let's turn instead to soft commodities, again we see that Orange juice is on the rise, and really, it never ceases to amaze us.
I mean, look at it, it wants to reach the moon, not like cryptocurrencies, unfortunately!
At the long-term trend we are really at incredible levels, +4.46% again this week for a market that shows no signs of wanting to stop.

And on to grains finally. Again, there are no particularly noteworthy returns.
Hard Red Winter gains +2.26% this week and little else.

On the currency front, on the other hand, we can see a Euro-Dollar against the trend, so the Euro is weakening against the U.S. Dollar. -1% at the moment. And it’s the only one of the various crosses that’s weak against the U.S. Dollar. The latest price is 1.0715.

Alright, let's finally turn to the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin, which is down this week. It had managed to break through some initial resistance and re-enter a trading range where it had remained for several months.
However, it encountered an earlier resistance level and is currently in retreat.
We’ll go and see if this is just a consolidation for a subsequent upward impulse that should succeed in breaking this level, which is certainly an important mark, around 24,500 or so.

As to volatility, we see generally declining historical volatility, if we exclude the Nasdaq in the short term, but we have still very low values, especially in the European indexes.

Let's also look at the implied volatility, namely, the volatility term structure of the S&P 500 volatility indexes.

We have the first hint of backwardation regarding the shortest volatility maturity, the nine-day maturity, but the volatility term structure still appears to be in contango.

The VIX is at 21.40 right now, which is still one of the lowest levels in recent months.

On to the Rollover calendar for next week.
It starts on February 13 with the rollover on Sugar futures.
This will be followed by Crude Oil on February 15, Heating Oil and Gasoline on February 16, and finally Natural Gas on February 17.

Okay, guys, before I say goodbye, I want to remind you all that if you’re interested in systematic trading, you can watch a free presentation by Andrea Unger, I’ll leave the link in the description below, where Andrea Unger explains his trading method that has enabled him to win the World Cup Trading Championships in real money trading four times. You can also get the best seller "The Unger Method" by covering only the shipping costs, or even sign up for a free strategy consultation with one of our tutors. So, go and take advantage of it!

Guys, that's it for today!

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And with that, I will see you next week! Bye bye for now!

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Andrea Unger

Andrea Unger

Andrea Unger here and I help retail traders to improve their trading, scientifically. I went from being a cog in the machine in a multinational company to the only 4-Time World Trading Champion in a little more than 10 years.

I've been a professional trader since 2001 and in 2008 I became World Champion using just 4 automated trading systems. 

In 2015 I founded Unger Academy, where I teach my method of developing effecting trading strategies: a scientific, replicable and universal method, based on numbers and statistics, not hunches, which led me and my students to become Champions again and again.

Now I'm here to help you learn how to develop your own strategies, autonomously. This channel will help you improve your trading, know the markets better, and apply the scientific method to financial markets.

Becoming a trader is harder than you think, but if you have passion, will, and sufficient capital, you'll learn how to code and develop effective strategies, manage risk, and diversify a portfolio of trading systems to greatly improve your chances of becoming successful.