Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly chat about the most important market trends of the last five days.
Okay, so, what has happened in the markets over the last week?
Let’s start with stock indexes.
In this chart, you can see the Nasdaq future. After the drawdown that took place a couple of weeks ago, it resumed rising quite significantly, probably in view of its end-of-year rally. It climbed nearly 2.5% and is the best performer of all the stock indexes we are monitoring. The Mini S&P is also positive, and as you can see, it’s also close to its all-time high. Here’s DAX, which is positive as well. And… at the moment, the only negative stock index is Eurostoxx50.
As far as Bonds are concerned, we see positive returns on both US and European bonds.
On the other hand, the energy sector ends the week lower, with Natural Gas being the only exception. Let’s take a look at Gasoline, which fell over 4% this week, and the same goes for Heating Oil and Crude Oil. As we said, the only exception here is Natural Gas, which has moved against the trend this week. However, considering the volatility of the last few days, there are no particularly significant trends to notice.
The metals sector is also wholly negative. It’s been quite weak for a while, and even if it ended last week higher, over the last few days, its weakness has come back, and all the metals went down, as you can see. The one that resisted the most is probably Gold.
We see mixed returns on the Meats, whereas the Soft Commodities sector is generally positive, with Coffee gaining over 7.5% this week. And here’s Cotton, which is still around its all-time high and has been moving around these prices for several weeks now.
Let’s turn to the Cereals sector now. The Wheat future definitely stands out, being one of the assets in this sector that has moved the most. Soybean Meal has also been moving in an interesting way. It increased significantly last week and has continued to rise this week, climbing about 2.8% over the last five days.
As for the Currency sector, the Euro hit a new all-time low against the Dollar, and now it is at 1.1324.
Let’s also look at cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, which fell almost 10% this week. At the moment, it’s recovering slightly. However, it doesn’t seem to be moving in a particularly powerful way.
Let’s move on to volatility now. As you can see, both the short-term and the long-term volatility of stock indexes is still pretty low. And historical volatility, you see it, it’s moving down as well.
On the contrary, if we look at implied volatility, we can see that over the last two weeks, there has been an increase in long-term implied volatility.
As for the term structure of volatility, it’s still in contango, which means that there are no signs of concern in the markets.
Alright, let’s move on to the rollover calendar. As you can see, there are going to be a lot of rollovers next week. On November 22nd, we’ll have to roll over Natural Gas. The Bitcoin future will follow. Then we’ll have to roll over Gold, Silver, and Copper from the metals sector, US Bonds, and Bean Oil, Corn, Soybean Meal, and Wheat. And finally, there’ll be two energy futures: Heating Oil and Gasoline.
Alright, guys. As always, I remind you that if you’re interested in learning more about how we trade at the Unger Academy following the method developed by Andrea Unger, the only 4-time world trading champion with real money, you can check out our free webinar. You find the link in the description of this video.
That’s it for this week!
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Alright, goodbye, everyone. I’ll see you next week!
