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BOOK YOUR FREE STRATEGY SESSION NOW >>It's been a busy week for stock markets. After Powell's speech on Wednesday, which hinted at a possible slowdown in interest rate hike policies, stock indexes rose by about three percentage points. However, following the release of U.S. employment data on Friday, the stock markets reversed those gains and closed the week close to parity.
In contrast, it was a positive week for both bonds and metals, which seemed to have regained some momentum.
To learn more about how the markets are moving and the volatility trend, don't miss our weekly overview!
Enjoy the video!
Hey everyone and welcome back to this brand-new video! One of the coaches at Unger Academy here, and this is going to be our usual chat that we have on the weekends about the market trends over the past week.
Okay, so it's been quite a busy week in the markets, even though it doesn’t look like it when we look at the returns of the stock indexes.
So… what happened? Well, as I’m sure you are aware, Powell gave a speech on Wednesday, hinting at a possible end or slowdown in the interest rate hike.
So the markets celebrated that by going up over 3% in just one day.
Then that rise paused for a moment, and today, with the release of better-than-expected new employment data, some of that certainty disappeared.
And much of Wednesday's uptrend has returned to previous levels, and we’re now near or just above parity.
As you can see, the Nasdaq is currently up by +0.45%. The EuroStoxx is flat. And the DAX is slightly down, as well as the Mini SP 500.
On the other hand, the bonds have done well and they continue to rise.
This week, we can see that the T-Bond went up by +1.34%.
The Bund also went up, by +1.18%.
And a bit further back is the U.S. 10-year bond, the TY.
As for the energy market, Crude Oil is up by +6%, and its derivatives also went up.
While on the other hand we see some large declines in Natural Gas, which continues to fall as it had started in the last two weeks.
All the metals, now they are all positive. Silver, in particular, stands out, with a rise of more than 5%.
Copper is also doing well and is up +4%. A little further behind, however, is Gold.
As for the Meat market, not much to report this week. Feeder Cattle is up by +1%.
As for the soft commodities market, on the other hand, we see some mixed returns. That is, we see both positive and negative 5-day returns.
Among the markets that are doing well is certainly Cotton, which is up by +3.5%. On the other hand, Orange juice is down, but we know it’s been growing very strongly and is near its all-time high.
The Grains, well, we've got all negative returns except Soybean Meal. Wheat is performing the worst at -3.5%. So, we can see that right now, Wheat is well back below the prices that it recorded before the outbreak of the war.
And then let's take a look at the cryptocurrencies and currencies.
The Yen is up +2.68% in the last five days. So, we see more or less general weakness in the US Dollar. The Euro-Dollar is at 1.0489 right now, so the Euro is definitely rebounding. The other currency pairs are also performing well. And the only negative one is the Canadian dollar.
And finally, Bitcoin is up by +3.34%. This is a minor movement, and Bitcoin is clearly still well below a significant resistance level. So here we'll wait and see if it will be able to recover from this critical level and get back near 20,000.
As for volatility, we can see that short-term volatility has dropped slightly, and in fact we have low percentile values. While long-term volatility, especially for the U.S. indexes, continues to be quite high.
Let’s now have a look at the volatility term structure, which remains in full contango also this week, and as you know, contango is the classic structure of the equity markets when there’s no disruption. So this means that short-term implied volatility is lower than long-term implied volatility.
And we can see also that the VIX is at a pretty low value compared to the values recorded in the last nine months.
Let's turn now our attention to the rollover schedule for next week.
European bond futures will be rolled over on December 5. Then, on December 7, which is this coming Wednesday, we'll have to roll over the U.S. equity indexes, that is, SP 400, SP 500, the mini-Nasdaq, and the Dow futures.
Alright. Before we leave you, I want to leave you with a piece of advice. If there’s someone among you who's interested in systematic trading, go and check out the link in the description of this video. Through this link, you can watch a free presentation by Andrea Unger, who will introduce you to his trading method, the Unger MethodTM, with which he won the World Cup Trading Championships four times.
And from the same link, you can also get the best-selling book "The Unger Method," covering only the shipping costs, or you can even sign up for a free strategy consultation with a member of our team.
And everyone, that's it for today.
I just want to remind you to please go and subscribe to our channel, click on the notification bell, leave a Like on this video as well, if of course you did like it. So we really appreciate it!
Alright everyone, have a fabulous weekend, and I will see you soon in our next video! Bye-bye for now!
We'll help you map out a plan to fix the problems in your trading and get you to the next level. Answer a few questions on our application and then choose a time that works for you.
BOOK YOUR FREE STRATEGY SESSION NOW >>Andrea Unger here and I help retail traders to improve their trading, scientifically. I went from being a cog in the machine in a multinational company to the only 4-Time World Trading Champion in a little more than 10 years.
I've been a professional trader since 2001 and in 2008 I became World Champion using just 4 automated trading systems.
In 2015 I founded Unger Academy, where I teach my method of developing effecting trading strategies: a scientific, replicable and universal method, based on numbers and statistics, not hunches, which led me and my students to become Champions again and again.
Now I'm here to help you learn how to develop your own strategies, autonomously. This channel will help you improve your trading, know the markets better, and apply the scientific method to financial markets.
Becoming a trader is harder than you think, but if you have passion, will, and sufficient capital, you'll learn how to code and develop effective strategies, manage risk, and diversify a portfolio of trading systems to greatly improve your chances of becoming successful.
