Hey guys and welcome back to our usual chat that we have every single weekend about the market trends over the past week.
One of the coaches at Unger Academy here.
So guys, let’s start, as usual, with the stock indexes, which have had a pretty turbulent week, especially yesterday, on Thursday.
Because as you probably know, the inflation data was released, and it actually was a bit worse than expected.
So the markets initially had a solid downward swing but then managed to recover and close in positive territory, broadly positive I’d say.
Today seems to be an interlocutory day, where the market continues on the uptrend, but certainly with less conviction.
Returns for the Nasdaq are currently just above zero over a five-day period.
We see a +1.30% for the MiniS&P 500.
And we see a slightly better performance of the European stock indexes Eurostoxx and Dax.
Bonds, we see that the T-Bond is showing a negative trend again this week, it went down by -0.80%. So it’s not overly negative, but still quite weak.
Of course, we know that inflation data also has a negative impact on the bonds.
So, this data that was released on Thursday, shall we say, somehow worsened the performance of this market, as it did with the stock market as well.
Right now, though, the declines are contained, and they are -0.82% for the T-Bond,
-0.32% for the 10-year U.S. bond.
On the other hand, positive, albeit only slightly, is the Bund.
On to the energy market, were on the other hand, we have a -6% decline in Crude Oil.
Gasoline and Natural gas are also negative, -3.60% and -3.27%, respectively.
Heating Oil is instead slightly positive.
Metals market, we see that Silver is down again this week and loses almost 9%.
It had risen very sharply last week and now unfortunately, it’s giving back almost all of its gains.
Not much else to report on metals…a -3% in Gold.
As for the Meat sector, this week we see a nice rise of the Lean Hogs, a +5.96% at this time.
Turning to another market, the soft commodities market, definitely a decline to report in Coffee.
We all know that Coffee is a highly volatile commodity.
This week this market is down -7%.
And I’d say that the other returns are all very close to zero in this sector, so yeah, not much to report.
On to grains, where we have a +4% increase in Soybean Meal. You see it in the chart here.
And also a +2.80% in Soybeans, so an upward swing for Soy derivatives this week definitely.
As for currencies, not much to report here either. We have a Euro-Dollar that is more or less at the same levels as last week.
Right now, we’re talking about 0.9791.
There is a sharp decline in the Japanese Yen against the Dollar, which has broken all the lows.
So, you can say that, in general, the U.S. Dollar is going strong against other currencies, except for the British Pound, which is recovering against the U.S. Dollar this week.
Ok let’s turn to the cryptocurrencies and have a look at Bitcoin, which is also more or less at the same levels as last week.
As you can see, Bitcoin, which has recently shown a strong correlation with the performance of the stock markets, initially showed a wave of declines with the release of the inflation data and then closed in positive territory.
Today this market is still slightly positive.
Although it certainly remains an extremely weak market.
Let’s talk about the volatility of the equity asset class now. Yeah, I’d say it’s medium to high at the moment.
If we take a look at the volatility term structure, we can see a sort of a hybrid structure.
Because we are neither in contango nor in backwardation. We are, let’s say, horizontal, that is, all the expirations of the volatility indexes on the SPX show more or less the same values.
So, a situation of indecision in the markets.
But if we look at the Vix Index prices, we see that they are still in the upper part of the range. So there’s some caution in the markets.
Finally, let’s take a look at the rollover schedule. Little work is scheduled for next week.
On October 17, it’s advisable to rollover the Crude Oil futures.
Guys, I’d like to leave you with some advice. If you’re interested in systematic trading, I suggest that you go and click on the link in the description of this video.
Through this link you can watch a free presentation by Andrea Unger, where he’ll introduce you to his trading method, with which he managed to win the World Cup Trading Championships in real-money trading 4 times.
You can also get the best seller "The Unger Method," covering only the shipping costs, or you can even book a free strategy consultation with one of our tutors.
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As always, we will see you again next week. Until then have a great weekend, have a great week. Bye-bye for now!
