Strategy of the Month (March): The Winner is a Trend Following on Crude Oil with an Amazing Equity Curve!

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In this video, we talk in detail about the winning strategy of our March 2023 Strategy of the Month contest and two other strategies that we found particularly interesting among those submitted by participants:
-Intraday breakout on Crude Oil (winner of the contest, a perfect example of applying the Unger Method!)
-Intraday breakout on Gold
-Fade breakout on Bund

The contest is reserved for students of the Unger Academy® and rewards the participant who has developed the best strategy using the Unger Method™ with a €1,000 Amazon gift card. To learn more about the contest and how you can participat click here.

Whether you are looking for new ideas to diversify your portfolio or want to get an idea of the type of strategies we teach to develop at the Unger Academy®, don't miss this video!

Enjoy! 😉


Introduction - What is Unger Academy's Strategy of the Month

Hey everyone, and welcome back to this brand new video. Today we’re going to be looking together at the results of our Strategy of the Month contest for the month of March.

We’re going to take a look at a selection of the most promising strategies from all the submissions that we received and then we're going to discover the strategy that won.

We will also give you operational insights by going through the basic logic of the strategies and observing their performance.

As a reminder, Strategy of the Month is the contest reserved for Unger Academy students. Each month, they can participate by submitting a trading strategy and competing for a chance to win a €1,000 Amazon gift card.

I'm one of the coaches at Unger Academy

Okay, I've talked too much, so let's immediately show you the best three strategies.

The first two strategies we’re going to look at really impressed us, even though they didn’t win, and right after that, I’m going to show you the winning strategy of the contest, which I can tell you right now, is unique.

Strategy on Bund (fade breakout)

This first strategy is developed on the Bund future, the German government bond.

It uses a 15-minute time frame, and a second time frame of 1440 minutes, which corresponds to a daily time frame.

The Bund session begins at 1:10 a.m. and ends at 10 p.m.

You could call this a fade breakout strategy. Let's just try to understand why.

In this session, prices made a low at the point I am showing you, and in the next session, they fell below that low.

If they rise above the low that we are talking about, we will enter a long position, and in that case we’ll close the position with a profit target at that level.

Obviously, on the short side, we’ll do the opposite thing.

The strategy uses monetary stop loss and take profit and closes all remaining open positions after seven days.

Let's look at the metrics to see how this strategy has performed from 2010 until today.

We see a Net profit of €100,000 versus a maximum loss of €8,500, so the ratio of the two is greater than 10 and is an excellent metric.

I’d say the curve is increasing and very smooth. We certainly appreciate the curve of the long trades.

And as for that of the short trades, we see how well this strategy weathered the downturns in the bond markets, which we see plummeted from 2022 onwards.

The Average trade of almost €240 is an excellent Average trade for this instrument.

And if we look at the profits year by year, excluding 2016, we see that the strategy has consistently delivered excellent results.

Strategy on Gold (intraday, breakout)

Alright, let's move on to the second strategy in our selection.

Our student developed it for Gold Futures using a 5-minute time frame.

You could call it a breakout strategy from the previous day's highs and lows.

As you can see, in this session, the price reached a high at this level and a low at this other level.

In the session that I am showing you, the price fell below the low, and in this case, we opened a short position, which was closed at the end of the session with a good profit.

Since this is an intraday strategy, all positions are closed at the end of the day, which means that they only stay open for a few hours.

It has a monetary Stoploss, and the student has chosen not to add a Take profit, which is also justified by the fact that the position as such will only last for a short time.

The code is very simple, only a few lines, so that’s also an advantage.

Look, you don't have to be a NASA programmer to develop these codes.

And then the simplicity is also an advantage because it allows you to deal with any changes in the market.

Let's look at the metrics to see how things have gone so far.

We’re seeing a Net profit of $165,000 and a maximum loss of about $14,000, so again, the ratio is over 10, and we are very pleased with that.

The equity line is smooth and rising. Very nice.

Long side and short side. We can appreciate its regularity.

And the Average trade of $141 is perfect for this strategy, especially considering that this is an intraday strategy.

Here we see the monetary Stoploss at about $2,000 or slightly less.

And these green trades, the winners with a big gain that were not stopped by the Profit target, continued their run.

So it’s also a great strategy.

The winner: Strategy on Crude Oil (intraday, breakout)

And now, here we come to the winning strategy of the "Strategy of the Month" contest. A strategy that was submitted by Paolo, so congratulations Paolo!

The strategy was developed for Crude Oil futures with a time frame of 5 and 1440 minutes.

This is a breakout-type strategy. Again, like the ones we've seen, we use the highs and lows of the previous day.

And in this case, when the maximum level I’m showing you is surpassed, in the next session the strategy will open a long position.

Of course, the opposite will happen for the short position.

It has an intraday duration, so it’s a strategy that closes all positions at the end of the day.

And it features a monetary Stoploss and Take profit.

This strategy was developed in full compliance with the Unger Method.

What does this mean? First, it ensures symmetry, so all the rules applied to the long side also apply to the short side.

And that is a very good way to trade in a commodity like Crude Oil.

Then you wait for a market price compression before you enter breakout. So, we want prices to reach stability somehow before they explode in a specific direction, and then we will try to ride the price trend.

There is also an operational time window, which is a window within which we are allowed to place orders, which has been set up very correctly.

And it has, as I said, monetary exits in terms of stops and take profits at the correct levels.

What Paolo has done makes us so proud and shows us that the Unger Method can be replicated and can lead to excellent results.

Let's look at the metrics of the strategy.

We have got a Net profit of $147,000 against the maximum loss of $11,000, giving us a ratio between these two values of over 13.

Definitely a good parameter.

The Average trade of $183 is very good considering that the strategy is intraday, so it only stays on the market for a few hours.

And if we look at the results year by year, we see consistently positive years with a very high Average trade.

And the last metric that I haven't revealed yet and that I'm going to show you now is the equity curve.

Here it is. Look at this, it's an awesome equity curve!!!

When we saw it, our first impression was, "wow!"

But the second was: "let's see if the student didn't happen to fall into some development trap that would show us this as a result of his testing, but then would not give the same results in live trading."

So what did we do? One of the many tests to x-ray this strategy was to modify the code, make some small changes, and see if the results were still good with those small changes.

Well, I have to say that it passed all the tests we did with flying colors, so we had to surrender and declare it the best strategy of the month.

Congratulations Paolo, again, a great strategy indeed!

Well, if you want to learn how to create independent trading strategies like the ones we’ve just seen, you are in the right place.

In fact, while learning, you can also enter this contest, dedicated exclusively to Unger Academy students, and compete to win a 1,000 Amazon gift card every month.

For more information, I invite you to click on the link in the description of this video. From there, you can watch a free presentation by Andrea Unger, get a free copy of our best-selling book called "The Unger Method", you just need to cover the shipping costs, that's it. And finally, book a call with a member of our team to receive a free strategy consultation.

If you enjoyed the video, please leave us a Like and subscribe to our channel to stay updated on the release of all our new videos and new content.

Thank you so much for your attention, and we look forward to seeing you next time! Bye bye!

Need More Help? Book Your FREE Strategy Session With Our Team Today!

We'll help you map out a plan to fix the problems in your trading and get you to the next level. Answer a few questions on our application and then choose a time that works for you.

Andrea Unger

Andrea Unger

Andrea Unger here and I help retail traders to improve their trading, scientifically. I went from being a cog in the machine in a multinational company to the only 4-Time World Trading Champion in a little more than 10 years.

I've been a professional trader since 2001 and in 2008 I became World Champion using just 4 automated trading systems. 

In 2015 I founded Unger Academy, where I teach my method of developing effecting trading strategies: a scientific, replicable and universal method, based on numbers and statistics, not hunches, which led me and my students to become Champions again and again.

Now I'm here to help you learn how to develop your own strategies, autonomously. This channel will help you improve your trading, know the markets better, and apply the scientific method to financial markets.

Becoming a trader is harder than you think, but if you have passion, will, and sufficient capital, you'll learn how to code and develop effective strategies, manage risk, and diversify a portfolio of trading systems to greatly improve your chances of becoming successful.