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BOOK YOUR FREE STRATEGY SESSION NOW >>Many analysts are predicting a significant rally for Bitcoin in the last two months of 2024.
Some are confident it will break its previous all-time highs, and others are even betting it will surpass the $100,000 mark.
These predictions are generating a lot of buzz among cryptocurrency investors.
While these forecasts are supported by statistical analysis of Bitcoin’s historical trends, there are new factors at play this time that go beyond the numbers.
We’re specifically talking about the upcoming U.S. elections in early November and the introduction of new regulated financial instruments for Bitcoin.
To help you get a clearer view of what might happen with the world’s leading cryptocurrency, check out this in-depth video now!
You’ll learn:
•Why Bitcoin is expected to rally (featuring statistical analysis of year-end and post-Halving data)
•All the key factors that could influence Bitcoin's performance as 2024 draws to a close
•How the outcome of the U.S. election, whether a Republican or Democratic win, could affect Bitcoin's future
Enjoy the video! 😉
Why a Bitcoin Rally?
For those following the cryptocurrency world, the burning question right now is whether we'll see a Bitcoin rally in the last months of 2024.
At the end of September, following a broad market rally that included the main stock indices, Bitcoin broke past $66,000 again, before slightly pulling back. Then, it attempted once more to break out of this sideways phase that has dominated recent months, aiming for a bullish breakout.
In this video, we’ll explore what we might expect from Bitcoin's price and, by extension, the entire cryptocurrency market for the remainder of 2024.
But furst, let me introduce myself—I'm one of the coaches at Unger Academy. And now, let's dive right into the heart of the topic.
The $100,000 Threshold
Some analysts are even forecasting that Bitcoin could reach around $100,000 by the end of the year.
This estimate is driven by several factors, especially expectations that Bitcoin will mirror its past market cycles following the Halving. There's also the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections scheduled for early November.
Moreover, historically, the last quarter of the year is when Bitcoin tends to perform the best.
Main Drivers for a Bitcoin Rally
So, let's take a look at the key drivers for these last three months, and beyond, for Bitcoin's future.
We’ve already mentioned the statistics—Bitcoin has historically performed better in the last quarter than during the rest of the year.
October, in particular, has been nicknamed "UPtober" due to its typically strong performance, as we’ll see.
The general expectation is that, as mentioned, Bitcoin will follow its post-Halving cycle as seen in the past. However, unlike previous years, there are additional factors this time that could influence Bitcoin’s movements.
Notably, the recent introduction of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have continued accumulating cryptocurrency over the past few months, as well as the anticipation surrounding the U.S. elections in early November. The winning candidate’s policies could affect Bitcoin's performance.
Additionally, the macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical situation are vastly different from those of previous Halving cycles, especially for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. All these factors could influence market movements and prices.
So, it’s definitely not easy to predict if the past will repeat itself in the same way.
Statistics on Bitcoin's Past Performance
That being said, if we dive into some statistics and numbers—something we systematic traders love to do—we can see that historically, the last quarter, or Q4, has shown the highest average percentage returns, around 81%, as we can observe from these CoinGlass charts.
October, in particular, as we mentioned, has displayed average returns of around 21%, and in 9 out of the 11 years from 2013 to 2023, it’s been positive.
So, it’s more than earned the nickname "UPtober."
From a systematic trading perspective, one could even consider taking advantage of this pattern with a strategy, perhaps buying at the beginning of October and only going long during this period.
However, given the relatively short history of Bitcoin, the statistical relevance of these numbers is limited. So, while tempting, it might be a bit risky. Still, it's something worth considering.
What perhaps fuels the most optimism for a Bitcoin rise is its cyclical behavior post-Halving.
Everyone’s wondering if history will repeat itself—typically, after a Halving, there’s a lateral period of about 160-170 days, after which Bitcoin has historically broken past its previous all-time highs, sparking a bull run.
We’re now beyond this period by a few days, yet Bitcoin hasn’t broken past its previous high of around $73,000.
We’re still in an accumulation phase, and speculation can run wild from here.
There are estimates, like this one from Bitbo.io, which projects the past four Halving cycles onto the current one to predict what might happen if the cycle repeats.
But as we said, this is just a hypothesis, a projection based on the past.
Possible Effects of New Listed Bitcoin Instruments
What sets this period apart from previous ones is the presence of Bitcoin ETFs, which have consistently been accumulating Bitcoin since their launch in early 2024, despite the market’s sideways movement. This suggests that if the market takes off, these ETFs could provide an additional boost.
Consider that these funds now hold about 5.2% of the total Bitcoin supply, which is significant given how young these financial instruments are—they’ve only been around for 10 months.
Potential Impact of U.S. Election Results
Then, there are the U.S. presidential elections, which, as mentioned, could also act as a market catalyst, with geopolitical tensions possibly influencing the election results.
Standard Chartered, for instance, predicts that a Bitcoin rally might be favored by a Trump victory, who is known for being more pro-crypto.
He’s even promised, during his campaign, to consider Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset for the U.S., which could be used to reduce the national debt of over $35 trillion.
On the other hand, a Democratic victory could lead to a short-term Bitcoin pullback, which might actually be a great entry point for those looking to capitalize on a dip.
While the election might impact Bitcoin in the short term, it won’t undermine Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
So, for medium-to-long-term investors, this could be a good opportunity to lower the average cost of their positions for a longer-term view.
Possible Influence of Global Macroeconomic Conditions
Finally, global macroeconomic conditions—like inflation in major economies and the monetary policies of central banks—naturally influence the crypto world as well, making comparisons with previous cycles less reliable since conditions were entirely different back then.
A potential economic crisis or geopolitical turmoil, like the ongoing wars, could increase volatility. While this presents an opportunity for traders, it could also drive more demand for Bitcoin, as it’s increasingly being viewed as a safe-haven asset, much like gold, which could positively impact its price.
So, this is another crucial factor to consider.
Final Thoughts
To summarize what we’ve discussed, expectations for a Bitcoin rally are high, driven by the regularity of its post-Halving bull runs, but also by global macroeconomic conditions and the unstable geopolitical environment, which could lead to higher demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.
The outcome of the U.S. elections might also serve as a catalyst for the next bullish cycle.
However, as we’ve seen, caution is needed—just because the past followed a certain pattern doesn’t mean it will do so again.
There are many factors that differ from the past, so all we can do now is watch how things unfold at the close of 2024 and see if our predictions hold true.
That’s all for today. If you're interested in topics like this or systematic trading, you're in the right place.
I recommend clicking the link in the description, and we'll see you in the next video from Unger Academy.
We'll help you map out a plan to fix the problems in your trading and get you to the next level. Answer a few questions on our application and then choose a time that works for you.
BOOK YOUR FREE STRATEGY SESSION NOW >>Andrea Unger here and I help retail traders to improve their trading, scientifically. I went from being a cog in the machine in a multinational company to the only 4-Time World Trading Champion in a little more than 10 years.
I've been a professional trader since 2001 and in 2008 I became World Champion using just 4 automated trading systems.
In 2015 I founded Unger Academy, where I teach my method of developing effecting trading strategies: a scientific, replicable and universal method, based on numbers and statistics, not hunches, which led me and my students to become Champions again and again.
Now I'm here to help you learn how to develop your own strategies, autonomously. This channel will help you improve your trading, know the markets better, and apply the scientific method to financial markets.
Becoming a trader is harder than you think, but if you have passion, will, and sufficient capital, you'll learn how to code and develop effective strategies, manage risk, and diversify a portfolio of trading systems to greatly improve your chances of becoming successful.
