Strategy of the Month (November 2024): The Winner is a Trend-Following Strategy on Coffee

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In this article, we’ll explore the results of our "Strategy of the Month" contest for November 2024. We’ll reveal the winning strategy and highlight other remarkable strategies selected from the numerous entries submitted by participants.

We’ll analyze the fundamental logic behind these strategies, the markets they target, and, of course, their performance.

Just as a reminder, the "Strategy of the Month" contest is an exclusive competition for Unger Academy students, rewarding the best strategy developed using the Unger Method. Participants can win an Amazon gift card worth €1,000 each month by submitting their strategy!

If you’re interested in accessing the winning strategies, you can join the Unger Strategy Club, one of the Academy's exclusive services. Members gain access to the open-source code of the winning strategy each month, as well as all past winning strategies. In addition, members enjoy a monthly live masterclass for advanced training, plus access to monthly videos with practical trading insights where we showcase the main rules of one of our portfolio strategies.

And it gets even better for those who join the VIP level of the Unger Strategy Club: VIP members get exclusive access to the open-source code of all contest strategies approved by the Academy’s coaches.

Let’s dive into the best strategies submitted in November.

Mean-Reverting Strategy on Euro FX (EC)


Among this month’s entries, Marco’s clever Mean-Reverting strategy for the Euro FX (EC) futures contract deserves a special mention. Although it didn’t claim the top prize, it’s a system worth applauding.

Created using Composer, a powerful software developed in-house at the Unger Academy, Marco’s strategy applies Bollinger Bands with a 20-period moving average and 2 standard deviations. It enters long positions when prices bounce above the lower band and goes short when they dip below the upper band—provided the system’s filters give the green light.

Figure 1 – Mean-reverting strategy on Euro FX

Figure 1 – Mean-reverting strategy on Euro FX

Marco introduced an interesting refinement to his trading strategy by using a time window that excludes activity during the second half of the trading session. He employed a symmetrical design, applying mirrored patterns for long and short trades provided in the NeutralFast and DirectionalFast lists available to Unger Academy students. This structured approach aligns with the Unger Method’s best practices for trading currency pairs.

Trade exits are triggered either by position reversals or reaching predefined stop-loss, take-profit, or breakeven levels, without imposing a maximum trade duration. (While it’s generally wise to close trades that remain open after several sessions, this would have had negligible impact in this case.)

Key performance metrics, derived from backtesting data spanning January 1, 2010, to November 30, 2024, showcase an outstanding Net Profit/Max Drawdown ratio (approximately 15), a solid average trade value of $387, and exceptional consistency. Impressively, the strategy has not recorded a single losing year over 15 years of data.


Figure 2 – Equity curve for the mean-reverting strategy on Euro FX

Figure 2 – Equity curve for the mean-reverting strategy on Euro FX



Trend-Following on Nasdaq (NQ)


Now, let’s delve into another intriguing submission from this month, crafted by Matteo, who merits recognition for his commendable effort, even though it didn’t secure the contest prize.

This trend-following strategy targets Nasdaq (NQ) futures with a 60-minute time frame, entering long positions when the high of the last 15 bars is breached. To fine-tune entries, Matteo incorporated a single pattern alongside a condition that ensures trades are executed only during short-term bullish trends.


Figure 3 – Trend-following strategy on the Nasdaq.

Figure 3 – Trend-following strategy on the Nasdaq.


This strategy closes trades upon hitting the stop-loss, take-profit, or breakeven thresholds—or at the latest, at the close of the session following the entry.

Key performance metrics (from 01/01/2010 to 11/30/2024) reveal an outstanding Net Profit/Max Drawdown ratio of approximately 23, a solid average trade value of $332, and robust returns over the past decade.


Figure 4 – Equity curve of the trend-following strategy on the Nasdaq

Figure 4 – Equity curve of the trend-following strategy on the Nasdaq



November’s Strategy of the Month: Trend-Following for Coffee


Let’s talk about November’s standout strategy, created by Alessio. Hats off to him for winning the €1,000 Amazon voucher!

This strategy is an intraday trend-following system for Coffee (KC) on a 15-minute timeframe. It capitalizes on price movements early in the trading session, entering long (short) when breaking the prior session's high (low).


Figure 5 – Trend-following strategy on Coffee

Figure 5 – Trend-following strategy on Coffee


Crafted with a symmetrical approach—ideal for a commodity—the strategy incorporates filters from two NeutralFast and two DirectionalFast patterns, exemplifying the principles of the Unger Method. Trades are exited through stop-loss, take-profit, or session-end mechanisms.

This strategy excels in both simplicity and efficiency. The limited duration of trades further mitigates risk, keeping the system's total market exposure below 5%.

The performance metrics (01/01/2010–11/30/2024) reveal exceptional results on both long and short trades.


Figure 6 – Performance report of the trend-following strategy on Coffee

Figure 6 – Performance report of the trend-following strategy on Coffee

Figure 7 – LONG and SHORT equity curves of the trend-following strategy on Coffee

Figure 7 – LONG and SHORT equity curves of the trend-following strategy on Coffee

Kudos to Alessio for demonstrating his prowess! This is his third win, showcasing the strength of his systematic approach.

Takeaways

We hope you found this article insightful and inspiring!

If your goal is to craft winning trading strategies like these, you’re in the right place. Along the way, you can enter our exclusive monthly contest for Unger Academy students, competing for a €1,000 Amazon voucher.

Want to dig deeper? Join the Unger Strategy Club to access the winning strategies and other top entries. Check out all the benefits at www.ungerclub.com.

That concludes this month’s feature. Join us next month for more innovative trading strategies and inspiration!


Curious about our “Trader of the Month” contest? This exciting monthly competition is open exclusively to Unger Academy students and rewards the top performer with a €1,000 Amazon gift card for achieving the best live trading results using the Unger Method. Interested? Click here to learn more!

Want to see the champions from previous months? Click here to check them out!

Andrea Unger

Andrea Unger

Andrea Unger here and I help retail traders to improve their trading, scientifically. I went from being a cog in the machine in a multinational company to the only 4-Time World Trading Champion in a little more than 10 years.

I've been a professional trader since 2001 and in 2008 I became World Champion using just 4 automated trading systems. 

In 2015 I founded Unger Academy, where I teach my method of developing effecting trading strategies: a scientific, replicable and universal method, based on numbers and statistics, not hunches, which led me and my students to become Champions again and again.

Now I'm here to help you learn how to develop your own strategies, autonomously. This channel will help you improve your trading, know the markets better, and apply the scientific method to financial markets.

Becoming a trader is harder than you think, but if you have passion, will, and sufficient capital, you'll learn how to code and develop effective strategies, manage risk, and diversify a portfolio of trading systems to greatly improve your chances of becoming successful.